Elsie Lange
McEwen will be a seat to watch in the upcoming federal election and a Labor loss would be “disastrous” to the party, according to a Monash University political expert.
Senior politics lecturer Dr Zareh Ghazarian said while the new electorate of Hawke and the slightly revised division of Bendigo were both safe Labor seats, the marginal Labor-held McEwen would be “important”.
“Depending on how tight the opinion polls are and how accurate they are at the moment, it certainly will be one of those interesting electorates in Victoria to watch,” Dr Ghazarian said.
Population growth in the state led to a redistribution by the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC), establishing the seat of Hawke, which will be contested for the first time this year.
While the redistribution took parts of the McEwen electorate with it, it also gave the northern seat parts of Bendigo – increasing its margin from five to 5.3 per cent.
However, it’s still marginal, because at the last federal election in 2019, current McEwen MP Rob Mitchell won 55.02 per cent of the vote – not enough for the seat to be considered safe or even “fairly safe”, according to the AEC.
And where a seat is marginal, residents can expect a lot of action, because both major parties – Labor and Liberal – want it.
The recent announcement of funding for the Macedon Ranges Regional Sports Precinct is a perfect example of what happens in marginal seats ahead of an election.
In early April, Mr Mitchell pledged $15 million in funding for the precinct if elected, and four days later, the Liberal McEwen candidate Richard Welch said he would deliver it.
“[Labor] needs to hold onto the seats it currently has to have any chance of winning government,” Dr Ghazarian said.
“If it’s starting to lose seats that are on five per cent or more margins, then it’s a disastrous result for Labor.”
The political expert also said it would be “universal issues” at the forefront of voters’ minds when they head to the polls.
“The cost of living is something that a lot of people are talking about,” Dr Ghazarian said.
“Issues concerning service delivery, health care, education, schools and the broader economy – I think these are going to be really prominent issues across all electorates.”
While Dr Ghazarian was not stark about his predictions, he said there was a “general swing” against the federal government at the moment.
“You’d expect these seats to actually have higher margins at the end of the election as compared to where they are going into the election,” he said.
The federal election is on 21 May. For information, go to aec.gov.au
